NFL Week 11 Picks

 No more byes after this week!  Of course, that matters more for fantasy football than actual football, but it really has to suck for those teams that get stuck with these late byes.  Take the Giants for example.  Can you tell me that playing 10 weeks in a row wasn’t at least part of the reason they got their butts kicked last week?  They definitely needed a break.

Anyway, last week was interesting in the situations that it created for a lot of teams going into this week’s games.  There are going to be a bunch of backup quarterbacks getting the nod for good teams this week, most notably Jason Campbell for the Bears and Byron Leftwich for the Steelers.  How long will Cuter and Big Ben be out?  And how big of an impact will it have on the playoff races?

Cardinals (4-5) at Falcons (8-1): Atlanta-Remember when Arizona was 4-0?  Yeah, I don’t either.  In the words of immortal ex-Cardinals coach Dennis Green, “They are who we THOUGHT they were.”  And I don’t want to brag, but who called last week being the game when the Falcons finally lost?  Maybe Roddy White should’ve gone easy on that 16-0 talk.  As it turns out, though, the loss didn’t hurt Atlanta at all, since none of the other first-place teams won last week, either.  And they’ve still got a three-game lead in the NFC South.  The Cardinals already have a win over the Patriots in New England, but that came back when people still thought they were actually good.  They won’t win in Atlanta.

Browns (2-7) at Cowboys (4-5): Dallas-So, Dallas goes and wins in Philly to keep its playoff chances alive, then gets a three-game homestand that starts with Cleveland and Washington.  Suddenly, things aren’t as bleak for America’s Team as they once looked.  In fact, they can move within one game of the Giants if they beat the Browns.  If they don’t, they don’t deserve to be in the playoff hunt.

Packers (“6-3”) at Lions (4-5): Green Bay-Since it’s the Lions’ CBS year, the Thanksgiving matchup with the Packers will be played a few days early.  Green Bay was rolling before its bye, winning four straight.  They can’t afford a loss, especially with the 6-4 Seahawks and Vikings both off this week.  The last thing the Packers want is end up in a tiebreaker.  Especially with Seattle.  You all remember what happened when those two played each other, right?  Anyway, the Lions will be all-but-officially knocked out with a loss this week.  Sadly, I don’t see Detroit returning to the playoffs.  ‘Cause they ain’t winning this one.

Bengals (4-5) at Chiefs (1-8): Cincinnati-Just when we were getting on the NFL for making us watch the Chiefs on a Monday night, they go finally lead a game and take the Steelers to overtime in Pittsburgh.  (By the way, best ending of a game ever!  Let’s kick a field goal on first down and get the hell out of here!)  With that win over the Giants, the Bengals are back in the AFC playoff mix.  They should get back to .500 with a win over the worst team in the league.

Jets (3-6) at Rams (3-5-1): St. Louis-Does anybody care?  Well, yes, the media cares.  Because the media is obsessed with Tim Tebow.  Woody Johnson still claims that he got Tebow for more than just attention, but I think he’s probably utilizing the philosophy that if he keeps saying it, people might actually start to believe it.  The Rams are less dysfunctional and participated in the NFL’s quadrennial tie last week, while the Jets were getting spanked all over Seattle.  Another NFC West road game will probably go just as well.

Eagles (3-6) at Redskins (3-6): Philadelphia-It’s not officially official yet, but Andy Reid is coaching his final seven games with the Eagles.  I actually think not having Michael Vick this week could help.  They needed a change, and maybe Nick Foles does give them a better chance to win.  I also think it helps that they’re playing the Redskins.  Washington might get caught looking ahead to its Thanksgiving game in Dallas.  Even though I probably shouldn’t, I’m going with the Eagles.  I just can’t see them in last place.

Buccaneers (5-4) at Panthers (2-7): Tampa Bay-The Bucs have quietly put a very solid season together, and they’re only a half-game out of a playoff spot right now.  With a win, they’ll move into a tie with the Vikings and Seahawks for the second wild card spot, and let’s not forget this all started with that Thursday-night win in Minnesota.  It was 16-10 when these two met in Tampa in Week 1, but the Bucs are a better team now than they were then.  They’ll win by more than six points this time.

Jaguars (1-8) at Texans (8-1): Houston-So, how big of a statement did the Texans make in Chicago last week?  I can definitely see Houston in the Super Bowl.  A home game against the last-place Jaguars should be a walk in the park.  Although, we have seen the better team lose games like this before.  As long as they don’t look ahead to their Thanksgiving debut in Detroit, they should be fine.  Even if they do, they’ll still probably win.

Saints (4-5) at Raiders (3-6): New Orleans-The Saints might not be dead just yet.  They’ve certainly worked their way back into the discussion if nothing else.  And it’s safe to say that they played their best game of the season by far in knocking off the Falcons.  Thanks to playing the two worst teams in the NFL back-to-back, the Raiders had a two-game winning streak going.  Then they played a couple of actual NFL teams and gave up a combined 97 points in their last two losses.  Expect them to give up a few more this week.

Chargers (4-5) at Broncos (6-3): Denver-Denver can’t officially clinch the AFC West this week, but if San Diego wants to have any hope of winning the division, this is a must-win game.  Remember, it was against the Chargers that the Broncos went on that crazy comeback to win 35-24 after trailing 24-0.  The Chargers are in the middle of a rough stretch where they go Bucs, Broncos, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers.  Their playoff chances might already be shot.  Denver, meanwhile, has an incredibly easy remaining schedule.  This one will be somewhat close, but the Broncos will win.

Colts (6-3) at Patriots (6-3): New England-Remember when this game was the one everybody circled on the NFL calendar?  Not so much anymore.  Although, the NFL has determined that enough people care to move this game from 1:00 to the national doubleheader game at 4:30.  Both teams are currently in playoff position and will retain their spots no matter what happens this week.  I just can’t get excited for a Colts-Patriots game that doesn’t involve both Manning and Brady, though.  Brady vs. Luck just doesn’t have the same cachet.  When it was Peyton vs. Brady, it was usually pretty even.  I don’t think Brady vs. Luck will be.

Ravens (7-2) at Steelers (6-3): Pittsburgh-We somehow got the two best games of the week saved for Sunday and Monday night.  First, we get the AFC North archrivals, who play each other in two of the next three weeks.  The Ravens have a one-game lead, but the Steelers have been on a roll lately, having won four straight.  Sure, things got a little harier than they should’ve last week, but they won a game without Ben Roethlisberger.  I don’t think the fact that they won’t have him this week is going to be as much of a problem as some people are making it out to be.  Byron Leftwich is a tested veteran who might just be the best backup in the league.  I don’t think there’ll be much of a drop off.  In fact, I think the Steelers defense shuts down the Ravens offense and Leftwich does just enough to get Pittsburgh a win.

Bears (7-2) at 49ers (6-2-1): Chicago-I guess when the defense doesn’t score it means the Bears don’t score at all.  Losing Jay Cutler and going against the Texans defense in the rain was just a bad combination for Chicago.  I watched most of the game and I’m still not sure how the 49ers ended up with a tie against the Rams.  The one thing it does is take San Francisco out of all the tiebreakers.  That makes a win here even more vital for both teams.  The second bye in the playoffs is likely at stake.  Alex Smith is probably going to play, but was limited in practice because, he too, was knocked out of the game last week.  Jason Campbell’s been taking first-team snaps all week, which should make the Bears offense function slightly better than it did last week.  Smith is prone to make mistakes in big games, and the 49ers’ only clunker this year came at home against the Giants.  The Bears will jump all over him if he makes too many mistakes.  Campbell’s just going to have to not lose the game, which he’s more than capable of.  (P.S.-Did you know that if you took the 49ers last week, it simply didn’t count in straight-up leagues, but they still counted it as a loss in spread leagues because they didn’t cover?)

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-4-1
Season: 100-46-1