Part VI Baseball 2013

Baseball 2013, Part VI: by Joe Brackets

With Opening Day set for tomorrow, we’ve reached the end of my annual six-part baseball season preview. And it’s also the hardest part. Because the NL West is perhaps the hardest division of them all to project. The Giants have won two of the last three World Series and haven’t exactly gotten any worse. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball and boast a loaded team for owners that have a “World Series or Bust” mentality. It’s going to be a very interesting race between the rivals.

I really have no idea how the race is going to play out. I think both of them will make the playoffs, but in which order is anybody’s guess. Then again, I can also see either one end up finishing third, too. Remember, San Francisco missed the playoffs in the year between World Series wins. That scenario seems highly unlikely of being repeated this season, though. I’ve gotta say San Francisco is the slight favorite in the NL West. They’ve got everybody back and have the top starting rotation in baseball.

1. San Francisco Giants: What’s not to like about this Giants team? The same lineup that started Game 4 of the World Series will start on Opening Day. In fact, the only major change they made was bringing back Andres Torres, the starting center fielder on the 2010 championship team, to serve as the backup for the man he was traded for–Angel Pagan. Throw in a reigning MVP, a slimmed-down Panda and a whole year of Hunter Pence and you’ve got the potential for the first repeat World Series champion from the National League since the Big Red Machine in 1975-76. Of course, their title defense two seasons ago was derailed by injuries, most notably Buster Posey’s broken leg, but I think the Giants have actually positioned themselves pretty well to handle an injury or two during the season. And, even though runs will always be at a premium with this team, their lineup is deeper than it was in 2011. But the starting rotation is what sets the San Francisco Giants apart. Tim Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young winner and was reduced to a long relief role during the playoffs last season. The rotation’s that deep. Matt Cain is clearly the ace, though. He threw the perfect game last year, and he’s the guy who got the ball in Game 5 against the Reds and Game 7 against the Cardinals. I was among the many who criticized Bruce Bochy for selecting Ryan Vogelsong to the All-Star team two years ago, but I’ve come around about Vogelsong. He’s a hell of a pitcher. Madison Bumgarner’s a nice change of pace from the three righties, and Barry Zito, while the highest-paid No. 5 starter in the game, seems to have reestablished himself as something resembling a Major League starting pitcher. The bullpen has lost freak of nature Brian Wilson and his ridiculous beard, but that’s not much of a loss, seeing as he didn’t play most of last season. Sergio Romo was his replacement last year, and the job is his now. Frankly, Romo is better than Wilson anyway. The rest of the bullpen is also phenomenal, although I do wonder how long they’re going to be able to get away with sending Jeremy Affeldt out there every single day.
Projected Record: 99-63
Projected Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Buster Posey-C, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Hunter Pence-RF, Brandon Belt-1B, Gregor Blanco-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito
Closer: Sergio Romo

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Last season’s big question regarding the Dodgers entering the season was how much of a mess the whole McCourt saga was going to make things. With the ownership situation settled, they made that blockbuster trade with the Red Sox in the middle of last season, making their “Win Now” approach incredibly apparent. Now they’ve got a full season of that high-priced roster to look forward to, and the sky could very well be the limit. They’ve got All-Stars everywhere, but I think the detail everybody conveniently forgets is that their two best players are homegrown products Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. If this lineup does nothing else, it’ll provide protection for the two of them. And I think Adrian Gonzalez will go back to his Padre-like levels now that he’s back in the comfort of Southern California. Hitting either in front of or behind Matt Kemp won’t hurt, either. They’ll just need to weather the DL stint that was the result of Hanley Ramirez breaking his thumb in the WBC final. The Dodgers’ big offseason splash was on the mound, where they picked up the best free agent pitcher available in Zack Greinke. He’s slotted into the No. 4 spot in that rotation, which shows you just how deep that Dodger rotation is. One former staff ace in the No. 4 spot and another former ace, Josh Beckett, in the No. 3 spot. The guy in the No. 1 spot is one of the best starters anybody can find–Clayton Kershaw. They have such an abundance of starting pitchers that Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang aren’t even in the rotation to start the season. That gives them insurance in case of injury or tradable pieces should they need to make a move. Nobody’s listed as the closer on the preseason depth chart, but I’d be shocked if it’s anybody other than Brandon League. Finishing ahead of the Giants is a very realistic possibility. Even if they don’t, the Dodgers have only one goal in mind. Winning their first World Series title in 25 years.
Projected Record: 95-67
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Carl Crawford-LF, Mark Ellis-2B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Matt Kemp-CF, Andre Ethier-RF, Jerry Hairston-3B, A.J. Ellis-C, Luis Cruz-SS
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley
Closer: Brandon League

3. Arizona Diamondbacks: The NL West is a two-team race. Let’s be very clear about that. But if any of the other three has any chance at breaking up a Giants-Dodgers 1-2 finish, it’s probably the Diamondbacks. With that being said, though, thsi Arizona team will look much different than the one that took the field last season. They shed most of their big salaries in Chris Young and Justin Upton, who made up two-thirds of their starting outfield, as well as Stephen Drew, who was traded to the Red Sox for Cody Ross, Upton’s replacement in right. The trade that sent Young to the A’s also resulted in the installation of Cliff Pennington as starting shortstop. Other new faces include Jason Kubel, Martin Prado, Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske. Although, they have established one guy as a cornerstone, agreeing to a long-term deal with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The pitching staff’s not spectacular, but it isn’t bad either. Ian Kennedy wouldn’t be considered an “ace” on any other team. We’ll have to see if Brandon McCarthy can revive his career after that devastating injury in Oakland last season. Wade Miley was their All-Star and a Rookie of the Year finalist last year, so they’ll have to see if he can avoid the sophomore slump. Outside of closer J.J. Putz, the bullpen doesn’t really offer much. The Diamondbacks’ biggest problem is that they’re an average team in a division that includes two very good clubs. For them to challenge for a division title, everything will need to go right and then some. Fighting for a wild card even seems like a stretch. I think they’ll probably end up closer to .500.
Projected Record: 81-81
Projected Lineup: Gerardo Parra-CF, Aaron Hill-2B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jason Kubel-LF, Cody Ross-RF, Miguel Montero-C, Martin Prado-3B, Cliff Pennington-SS
Projected Rotation: Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley, Patrick Corbin
Closer: J.J. Putz

4. Colorado Rockies: Every preview I’ve seen has the Rockies finishing last in the NL West. Most people expect them to be among the worst teams in baseball. But I just don’t see it. The Rockies aren’t as bad as San Diego. They have two bona fide stars in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but they’ve had problems keeping those two healthy over the past couple years. Todd Helton’s a future Hall of Famer and you know what you’re getting from him year in, year out. I also really like center fielder Dexter Fowler. I know he’s been a disappointment so far in his Major League career (last year he even got demoted), but I’m still a Fowler fan. They also have former Twins All-Star Michael Cuddyer in right. The lineup’s not deep and, frankly, neither is the pitching staff. Jhoulys Chacin is good, but he’s not a No. 1 starter. That role should probably belong to Jeff Francis, who starts the season as the No. 3. They have another seasoned veteran in Jon Garland, as well. They’re taking a big risk by plugging in Jorge de la Rosa at No. 2, though. He hasn’t pitched since July 2011 and is coming off Tommy John surgery. The top pitcher on the roster might be closer Rafael Betancourt, who was the prize acquisition in the trade that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland a couple years ago. But even though I don’t see the Rockies’ situation as dire as some others do, I still think it’s going to be a struggle for them to win 70 games. Especially in a top-heavy division like this one. They’ll likely land somewhere in the 65-70 range.
Projected Record: 70-92
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Josh Rutledge-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Carlos Gonzalez-LF, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Todd Helton-1B, Wilin Rosario-C, Chris Nelson-3B
Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge de la Rosa, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Juan Nicasio
Closer: Rafael Betancourt

5. San Diego Padres: The Padres have Chase Headley. That’s about it. But I’m not sure he’s the type of “franchise player” that’s good enough to build around. Throw in the other slight little problem that he’ll start the season on the DL with a broken thumb and you’ve got very little offense in San Diego. That’s not too much of a problem in cavernous Petco Park, but their pitching isn’t that great either. Other than Edinson Volquez, I’m not sure they have a single starter I’d want. The back end of the bullpen is really good, though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see closer Huston Street and/or setup guy Luke Gregerson traded at some point during the season, which is the Padres’ usual M.O., especially if they’re out of it. And if Headley’s out for an extended period, they could be out of it early. Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso can mash, and center fielder Cameron Maybin has a lot of upside, but none of these guys will be able to carry a Headley-less lineup. That’s San Diego’s biggest problem, which is why, all optimisim aside, I can’t say they’ll get many more than 65 wins this season. I might be wrong. The Padres are known for developing their own guys, and maybe rookie second baseman Jedd Gyorko will be a revelation. I don’t see it happening, though.
Projected Record: 67-95
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Cameron Maybin-CF, Everth Cabrera-SS, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Chris Denorfia-RF, Jedd Gyorko-2B, Nick Hundley-C, Cody Ransom-3B
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross
Closer: Huston Street

And with that, here are my picks for what’s going to happen in October, based on my projected records for all 30 teams:
AL Wild Card: Yankees def. Rangers
ALDS: Tigers def. Yankees, Angels def. Blue Jays
ALCS: Tigers def. Angels

NL Wild Card: Dodgers def. Braves
NLDS: Nationals def. Dodgers, Reds def. Giants
NLCS: Nationals def. Reds

WORLD SERIES: Tigers def. Nationals