Part IV of Baseball 2013

Baseball 2013, Part IV

One of those teams plays in the NL East.  The Nationals’ controversial decision to shut a perfectly healthy Stephen Strasburg down in September in the middle of a pennant race last season might’ve cost them a trip to the World Series.  I think it did.  This year, Strasburg has no such limitations, and, as a result, the Nationals are a World Series favorite in a lot of people’s eyes.  I’ve even seen comparisons made to the ’86 Mets.  That’s a lofty standard.  I’m not sure the Nationals are that good (the ’86 Mets won 108 games and are one of the most dominant teams over a single-season there’s ever been), but they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL East.  Even Atlanta, which made the playoffs last season and is still a very, very good team.  The Braves’ playoff chances might once again rest on the wild card game, though.  Because this is Washington’s division to lose.

1. Washington Nationals: Where do I start about how good the Washington Nationals are?  Their biggest problems last season were that Bryce Harper was playing center field and Jayson Werth was leading off.  They didn’t want either of those things.  So they traded for Denard Span, solving both problems.  Now they can put Harper in left where they want him and they have an actual leadoff hitter, which means Werth can go back to the middle of the lineup where he belongs.  Michael Morse was a casualty of the Span trade, but he’s not a left fielder, and with Adam LaRoche playing first base every day they wouldn’t have had a place to put him.  He would’ve been a nice guy to have as a pinch hitter, though, because the bench isn’t particularly deep.  However, the starting lineup is so good that it might not even make a difference.  As for the pitching…  I think one of the reasons they were comfortable shutting Strasburg down last season was because of their pitching depth.  Gio Gonzalez had Cy Young-caliber season in 2012, and he’s their No. 2! starter.  Then there’s Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler.  If that rotation wasn’t already strong enough Washington has also added former Angel Dan Haren as their fifth starter.  And just to further hammer home the point that they’re by far the class of this division, the Nationals improved their bullpen, too.  Rafael Soriano was the best free agent closer available.  Adding him to that bullpen might be that last piece that was missing.  The Nationals finished with the best record in baseball last season, but lost to the Cardinals in the Division Series.  It might be a little early for comparisons to the ’86 Mets, but it’s not a stretch to say that they might end their season the same way the ’86 Mets did.  This is a very, very good team in the Nation’s Capital.  Last season, they brought October baseball to Washington for the first time since 1933.  Can a first World Series title since 1924 be too far away?
Projected Record: 102-60
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Ian Desmond-SS, Bryce Harper-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Adam LaRoche-1B, Jayson Werth-RF, Danny Espinosa-2B, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren, Ross Detwiler
Closer: Rafael Soriano

2. Atlanta Braves: There are very few flaws with this Atlanta Braves team.  The problem is they’re not as good as the Nationals.  Which isn’t an insult.  This is the first time in 20 years that Chipper Jones won’t be manning the hot corner in Atlanta, and his absence leaves a hole at third base that the Braves need to fill.  The rest of the roster is incredibly solid, though.  They were willing to let Michael Bourn walk because they Andrelton Simmons waiting in the wings to be the leadoff hitter and they knew they could get a cheaper center fielder, which they found in B.J. Upton.  As a bonus, B.J.’s brother Justin came aboard to play left, giving Atlanta an outfield that’s two-thirds Upton and one-third Jason Heyward.  Heyward still hasn’t quite followed-up his spectacular rookie season, but he’s still an above-average Major League right fielder.  And he has so much up-side you can’t not play him.  Brian McCann is injured and out until probably May, but they’ve brought in Gerald Laird, who’s an adequate replacement.  The Braves have a loaded lineup.  As for the pitching, it’s not quite the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz days.  Beyond Tim Hudosn and Kris Medlen, the rotation isn’t that great, which is why I think Washington has a slight edge in the division.  The Braves, however, have arguably the best rotation in baseball.  It’s much more than Mr. Strikeout-Half-the-Guys-I-Faced closer Craig Kimbrel.  Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty are two of the best setup guys you can find.  If anybody’s going to challenge Washington for the NL East title, Atlanta’s your team.  I think it’s more likely the Braves end up in the wild card game again, though.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Andrelton Simmons-SS, Justin Upton-LF, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, B.J. Upton-CF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Gerald Laird-C, Juan Francisco-3B
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel

3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies haven’t exactly regressed since the days when they dominated the division.  It’s just that the Nationals and Braves have gotten much better.  Well, that and the fact that the Phillies had a happen to them what the Yankees are currently experiencing.  All of their position players got old quickly and at the same time.  With all that being said, the Phillies aren’t as deep as they’ve been in the past.  Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco are all gone, although the addition of Michael Young was a very good one.  A veteran presence who can play any position and, more importantly, needed a fresh start, I think Young could have a big year.  I also think new center fielder Ben Revere is capable of big things.  He’s one of two former Twins center fielders now playing in the NL East, joining the Nationals’ Denard Span.  Regardless, the lineup’s not what it used to be.  On the mound, they’ve still got the Big Three of Hamels, Halladay and Lee.  Kyle Kendrick and newly-acquired John Lannan complete a very competent starting rotation.  And as long as they have Jonathan Papelbon, they’ll be OK at the end of games.  With the talent on the roster, it’s not much of a stretch to say the Phillies are capable of contending for the NL East title this season.  However, being in the mix for the wild cards seems a little more realistic.  Even that seems like it’ll probably fall a little short, though.
Projected Record: 88-74
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS, Ben Revere-CF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Michael Young-3B, Domonic Brown-RF, John Mayberry-LF, Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon

4. New York Mets: Once again the Mets seem content to be their usual middle-of-the road selves.  A nice dysfunctional distraction from the Yankees every once in a while, but otherwise pretty much left alone to go about their business.  The two biggest pieces of news regarding the Mets this season are that 1) Citi Field is hosting the All-Star Game and 2) they gave David Wright the contract and captain designation he deserves.  If the David Wright that played for Team USA shows up for the Mets this season, that investment will prove to even wiser.  Problem is, beyond their franchise player, there’s not much to write home about with this Mets roster.  They got catcher John Buck in the R.A. Dickey trade and former Cubs All-Star Marlon Byrd is the projected starting right fielder, but they both seem to be reclamation projects.  But Lucas Duda in left field?  Really?  I like Lucas Duda, but he’s a DH (which is a problem when you’re on a National League team).  R.A. Dickey became the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young last season, but the Mets traded him to the Blue Jays.  I think that was an uncharacteristic really smart move by the Mets.  Dickey’s going to come back down to Earth very soon, so why not sell high when you have the chance?  And they got Shaun Marcum for him, who has the potential to be very successful in the National League.  As for Johan Santana, it looks like he and the Mets are still paying for the franchise’s first-ever no-hitter.  It basically knocked him out for the entire remainder of last season, and he’s staying in Florida when the team breaks camp.  That leaves Jonathon Niese as the Opening Day starter, although everyone would agree that he’s better served as a No. 2 or probably a No. 3.  Serious upgrade at closer with Frank Francisco.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Colin Cowgill-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Marlon Byrd-RF, Lucas Duda-LF, John Buck-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Projected Rotation: Jonathon Niese, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey
Closer: Frank Francisco

5. Miami Marlins: Remember last year when the Marlins made this big splash in free agency and everyone thought they were going to be so good?  Yeah, well scratch that plan.  This year, after that historic, embarrassing trade with the Blue Jays, nobody’s expecting anything from the Marlins.  Not losing 100 games would probably be considered an achievement for a team that went from so many big names to Giancarlo Stanton and a bunch of people you’ve never heard of.  The Marlins aren’t in as bad shape as some other bad teams, though (Houston).  They have a legitimate superstar in Stanton and enough talent around him to at least resemble a Major League ballclub.  Guys like Juan Pierre and Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco.  I’m not saying they’re going to contend with these guys when they didn’t with the likes of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez on the roster, but they’re not going to as incredibly bad as we were all thinking immediately after they traded the entire team to Toronto.  Keep in mind though, this team knows it isn’t going to be good and isn’t trying to be.  The rotation is one place where Miami needs a lot of work.  Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, their top two starters, were part of the purge, leaving Ricky Nolasco as the nominal “ace.”  With the exception of Kevin Slowey, I’ve never heard of any of their other starting pitchers.  If not for the World Baseball Classic, I’d never heard of closer Steve Cishek either.  Jeff Loria got the City of Miami to build him that beautiful new ballpark with the promise that he’d put a winner on field…and gave them this.  It’s not fair to those fans, provided there are actually any left.  Maybe he played us all for fools and this is part of some masterful long-term plan.  In the short term, though, I just feel really bad for Giancarlo Stanton, who’s probably wondering how he can get out of there.
Projected Record: 67-95
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF, Placido Polanco-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Casey Kotchman-1B, Justin Ruggiano-CF, Donovan Solano-2B, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, Rob Brantly-C
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc, Henderson Alvarez, Kevin Slowey
Closer: Steve Cishek