Baseball 2013, Part I

Baseball 2013, Part I by Joe Brackets:

I always break the baseball preview into six parts, looking at each division separately.  This year’s no different.  And I’ll start where I always start…with the AL East.  It’s been a strange offseason in the AL East to say the least.  Mainly because the two powers aren’t a cut above everyone else like they usually are.  I can’t remember the last time we went into a season where neither one was favored in the division, but that’s the case this year.  The Red Sox hit rock bottom last season, don’t appear to have gotten much better and might be looking at another last-place finish. The Yankees are old and injured and will be lucky to make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Orioles had a dream season last year and Tampa Bay’s always in contention.  But the team to watch in the AL East is the Toronto Blue Jays.  On paper, this is the best Toronto team since their back-to-back World Championships 20 years ago.  It’s not a stretch to say the Blue Jays are the favorites in a division that’s been turned completely upside down.

1. Toronto Blue Jays: Look who remembered they don’t play in a small market!  They, of course, made the biggest splash of the offseason when they pulled off that major trade for every player on the Marlins that anybody’s ever heard of (except for Giancarlo Stanton).  But they didn’t stop there, also getting All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera and Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.  Critics of the trade like to point out that these are the same people who, despite high expectations, led the Marlins to a last-place finish last season, but I don’t think that’ll happen in Toronto.  For starters, the Blue Jays already had a number of solid pieces on the team.  These guys are making an already good team better.  But more importantly, the pitching in Toronto is significantly better than the pitching in Miami.  It needs to be in this division.  Consider, Ricky Romero was the ace of this staff last season, and he’s likely going to be the No. 4 starter in the rotation now.  Without being matched up against the CC Sabathias, Felix Hernandezes and Justin Verlanders of this world anymore, Romero could have a big year.  And after that lost year in Miami, Mark Buehrle should bounce back now that he’s back in the AL where he’s comfortable.  And don’t get me started on that lineup.  It’s not fair how good this team could be.  They’re going to hit a lot of home runs and win a lot of games.  Will it be enough to win the best division in baseball?
Projected Record: 98-64
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-1B, Adam Lind-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Maicer Izturis-2B
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow
Closer: Casey Janssen

2. New York Yankees: Call me a blindly loyal optimist, but I think second place is very attainable.  Sure, they didn’t sign anybody worthwhile in free agency and a different starter goes down with an injury every other day, but if they can survive April at right around .500, I don’t think they’ll be in bad shape when everybody comes back.  I also don’t think a trade between now and the start of the season is completely out of the question.  But here’s the thing, regardless of age and injuries, they’re still going to be a very good team.  That’s what happens when you have this much talent on the roster.  Robinson Cano, fresh off being named MVP of the WBC, is going to have to carry the offense for a little while, if not the entire season, but you know somebody unexpected is going to big a big contributor in this lineup the way Raul Ibanez was last year.  And as blasphemous as it makes me sound, I really like the addition of Kevin Youkilis.  He fills a need, can still produce, and is a very good fit in this lineup.  He’ll be incredibly important, especially until Teixeira and/or A-Rod comes back.  With all the questions in the lineup, though, the Yankees might have to win games differently this season.  With pitching.  Let’s not forget how good the front end of that rotation is (Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte), and the back end of that bullpen has the great Mariano Rivera for one final go-round.  If nothing else, this season will be Mo’s Farewell Tour, which will make the 2013 campaign worthwhile no matter how many games the Yankees win.  Theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win!
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Derek Jeter-SS, Ichiro Suzuki-RF, Robinson Cano-2B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, Travis Hafner-DH, Juan Rivera-1B, Brennan Boesch-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Brett Gardner-CF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova
Closer: Mariano Rivera

3. Tampa Bay Rays: There’s one reason why the Rays, despite their low payroll, are always in the mix in this division.  It’s because of their pitching.  An outstanding rotation and a top-notch bullpen, anchored by Fernando Rodney, he of the 0.60 ERA last season and seven saves in eight WBC games.  Even with James Shields gone (traded to Kansas City), the rotation is among the best in the game, and David Price and Jeremy Hellickson represent one of the top 1-2 punches out there.  With that pitching staff, Tampa Bay’s always going to hang around despite the constantly-changing lineup.  The free agent position player exodus continued, as B.J. Upton signed with the Braves and Carlos Pena now with the Astros.  Upton’s departure gives Desmond Jennings the opportunity to play center field every day.  It also gives them the chance to move Matt Joyce to left and install Ben Zobrist as the everyday right fielder.  I love Ben Zobrist and his value cannot be understated.  But I think giving him a full-time role at the same position could end up being a good thing in the long run.  The Rays’ best player, of course, is Evan Longoria, though.  As goes Longoria, so goes Tampa Bay.  Upton’s gone, so this year his protection comes in the form of James Loney, the former Dodger who got shipped to the Red Sox in last season’s “please take everybody we’ve got who we don’t want” trade.  I like him in Tampa Bay.  And he’s better than Carlos Pena.  Yunel Escobar is the new shortstop, which is an upgrade defensively.  They’ll do their typical thing.  They won’t score a ton of runs (and their lineup’s a little too left-handed in my opinion), but they’ll scrap, pitch and play solid defense, which should keep them in the race well into September.
Projected Record: 90-72
Projected Lineup: Desmond Jennings-CF, Yunel Escobar-SS, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Matt Joyce-LF, Ben Zobrist-RF, Luke Scott-DH, Ryan Roberts-2B, Jose Molina-C
Projected Rotation: David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb
Closer: Fernando Rodney

4. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles struck lightning in a bottle last season.  I’m not saying it can’t happen again.  They’ve got a young, talented team that got a wealth of valuable experience last season.  I’m just saying you can’t count on everything that went their way in 2012 going that same way again in 2013.  They won a ridiculous number of one-run and extra-inning games last season.  Law of averages says that’ll have to balance out.  And that bullpen, while talented, can’t be expected to put up those same unreal numbers again.  However, the Orioles repeating last season’s magic wouldn’t be that surprising, either.  They’ve got some of the best young talent in the game in the likes of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.  They don’t have the home run-or-strikeout that is Mark Reynolds anymore, and instead will be able to give Chris Davis regular at-bats either at first base or DH.  Davis is too valuable a member of this lineup to be stuck in a part-time role.  They’ll also get a full year of Manny Machado, who was incredibly impressive during his stretch run call-up last season.  I’m tabbing him as my early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, especially now that he’s not going to be learning third base on the job.  A full year of Nate McLouth will be another benefit.  One of the Orioles’ constant problems before McLouth’s arrival was their lack of a leadoff man.  He solved that problem.  Of course, they have another leadoff man on the roster in Brian Roberts, but he’s had so much trouble staying healthy over the past couple seasons that they finally realized they can’t rely on his bat at the top of the order.  (Last year they had Markakis leading off for a while before he broke his hand.)  If Roberts stays healthy, though, that’s a formidable 1-2 punch setting the table for Markakis, Jones and Wieters.
Projected Record: 87-75
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-LF, Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Chris Davis-1B, Wilson Betemit-DH, Manny Machado-3B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yen Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Jake Arrieta
Closer: Jim Johnson

5. Boston Red Sox: After last year’s debacle, they know that this season can’t be any worse.  I’m not sure it’ll be much better, though.  Bringing in John Farrell as the new manager was certainly a good move, and the Red Sux will be their usual annoying selves before long.  But they’re looking at another year of rebuiliding first.  They made that clear with the salary-dumping trade to the Dodgers in the middle of last season.  They didn’t completely ignore the free agent market, though, signing Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Joel Hanrahan.  This is going to be a different Boston team, and with the incredible depth of this division, it’s probably a stretch to consider them playoff contenders.  Trying to finish .500 and avoid another last place finish seem like more reasonable goals.  Those seem attainable, especially since some of the usual suspects from the championship teams (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz) are still around.  The rotation’s nowhere as good as it’s been in the past, either.  Buchholz and Lester are still worth the money, but I’m sure they wish they had the money they’re paying John Lackey back, and I’m not sure what you can expect from Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster.  The bullpen’s decent with a pair of former All-Stars (Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey) at the back end, but they’re still looking for a new Jonathan Papelbon and it’s not either one of those guys.  The one positive thing about the Red Sox is that I’ll have a certain level of pride when Ryan Lavarnway’s name is introduced at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day.  It’s so cool for me to be able to say “I knew him when,” and it’s great that Ryan is getting to live his dream.  He’ll be on a Major League roster on Opening Day.  That’s enough to give even a Yankee fan goosebumps.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup (on Opening Day): Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Daniel Nava-LF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Mike Napoli-1B, Shane Victorino-RF, Jonny Gomes-DH, Willie Middlebrooks-3B, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster
Closer: Joel Hanrahan