Parlez-Vous Tennis

Parlez-Vous Tennis by Joe Brackets:

Nadal, who miraculously recovered from the “injury” that caused him to miss the US and Australian Opens, conveniently returned in time for the clay court season.  But because he was out for so long, his ranking is down to No. 4 (he’s seeded third, though, because Andy Murray isn’t playing).  And because of that, he lost the Djokovic/Federer coin flip and ended up on the same side of the draw as Djokovic, his victim in last year’s final.  Djokovic might be the only guy standing in the way of Nadal winning yet another French Open, though.  This is the only Grand Slam tournament he hasn’t won, and last year was the first time he made the final.  That semi could be the match of the tournament.

The lack of Murray (who I didn’t even realize moved past Roger as No. 2) also means that David Ferrer got the No. 4 seed.  Ferrer has taken full advantage of Nadal’s absence at the last two Grand Slams.  He took that fourth semifinal spot in each tournament.  Ferrer’s actually been to three of the last four Grand Slam semis, starting at Roland Garros last year.  Ferrer is clearly the fifth-best player in the world, but does he have what it takes to break through and reach his first Grand Slam final?  I’m not sure.

The top player who caught the luckiest break of all when it comes to the draw is the only guy not named Nadal who’s won this tournament in recent memory.  That would be one Roger Federer.  Of course, the other guy who’s been a thorn is Roger’s side is Thomas Berdych, who did happen to fall on his side of the draw.  Fortunately for Roger, the semi would be Berdych-Ferrer.  Instead he got Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Tsonga’s French, extremely talented, and has beaten Roger in a Slam before (coming back from 0-2 down to win in five), all of which makes him an incredibly dangerous potential quarterfinal opponent.  I think Federer gets through it, though.

Until somebody proves that they can beat one of the Big Three or Ferrer, it’s stupid not to go with the chalk when it comes to projecting semifinalists.  The Djokovic-Nadal rematch would add another chapter to that incredible rivalry.  In any other tournament I’d pick Djokovic, but in Paris, it’s tough to go against the guy who annoyingly doesn’t lose.  And that would then add another chapter to Roger vs. Rafa in the final.  Again, as much as it pains me, it’s stupid to say anybody other than Rafael Nadal is going to win the French Open.

Fortunately, the women’s tournament will be a little less predictable.  Last year, Serena Williams lost in the first round.  She then turned into the Serena of old, winning Wimbledon, Olympic gold and the US Open, and becoming the oldest No. 1 in history.  The women have done a pretty good job of establishing their own Big Three, though, as Serena, Vika Azarenka and Maria Sharapova have distanced themselves from the rest of the field.  The three of them have won the last five Grand Slam finals.

If anybody has a chance to break that stranglehold, though, it might be fourth-seeded Agnieszka Radwanska.  She’s never been past the fourth round at Roland Garros, but I really like the way she’s playing right now and I think she could make some noise.  Same thing with eighth-seeded Angelique Kerber and No. 12 Maria Kirilenko.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them make a run.

Sharapova’s the defending champion, but there are former winners and finalists scattered throughout the draw.  Of that group, Ana Ivanovic and Sara Errani, last year’s finalist, are the ones I think are most capable of going on a deep run.  Errani was the big surprise last year, and she’s carried that over into the No. 5 ranking.  Li Na won the tournament two years ago and is seeded sixth, but I don’t like her draw.  Li did reach the final in Australia, though, losing to Azarenka.  The last time she went to the final in Melbourne, she won in Paris.  I don’t think it’ll happen again, but I’ve underestimated Li Na before.

As for who’s going to come through the draw, I think Kerber beats Serena in a very competitive quarterfinal.  Radwanska and Errani are seeded to meet each other in the quarters.  They’ve both got some tough opponents along the way (Radwanska might have to face Venus in the third round), but I see them both getting through.  Another good quarterfinal, but Radwanska wins.  On the bottom half, for some reason, I just have a feeling Kirilenko beats Azarenka in the quarters, ending Vika’s semifinal streak.  Maria has the most straightforward path to the semifinals, and, with the way she’s played since the start of this tournament last year, I don’t see anybody getting her way.  That is, until the final.  Again, this is nothing but a gut feeling, but I see Aggie Radwanska knocking off Sharapova to win her first Grand Slam title.