NFL Week 16 Picks
NFL Week 16 Picks
It’s weird to sit here on a Saturday night watching Monday Night Football, but I also have to say that it’s nice to have the late-season Saturday night game back. The NFL always used to do that, and I didn’t realize how much I missed it. Anyway, the reason there’s a Saturday night game instead of a Monday night game this week is because Monday’s Christmas Eve, and, as a part of the TV deal, the NFL agrees not to play a night game on Christmas Eve or during the day on Christmas. As a result, we got a special Saturday night treat. (There was no Thursday night game because they don’t want to have two teams with extra rest in Week 17.)
With 15 games on the schedule, Sunday promises to provide us with some playoff clarity. In fact, we could have 10 of the 12 berths clinched before the day’s out. We might even get that four-way tie for the second NFC wild card broken. It’s not like last week’s slate, where there were intriguing matchups all over the place (many of which turned out to be duds), but we’ve still got a bunch of good ones to look forward to.
Sinners (6-8) at Cowboys (8-6): Dallas-If the Cowboys win, it likely sets up a winner-take-all NFC East championship game next weekend in Washington. Dallas has been playing well over the last month, winning three straight since their Thanksgiving loss to the Redskins, including last week’s crucial overtime victory against the Steelers. With New Orleans officially out of it, the Sinners are now thrust into the role of spoiler. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this game, but Dallas is on a mission after missing the playoffs last year. Brees outplays Romo, but the Cowboys win.
Titans (5-9) at Packers (“10-4”): Green Bay-The Packers locked up the NFC North last week and still have a chance at the No. 2 seed (they’d lead the 49ers by a half-game if not for the Seattle game). That means Green Bay’s not going to be mailing it in against the Titans. If Tennessee was buoyed at all by that win on Monday night, some of the excitement has got to be tempered by the fact they were playing the Jets. It’s the Packers’ last game at Lambeau before the playoffs. Them losing seems highly unlikely.
Colts (9-5) at Chiefs (2-12): Indianapolis-In order to clinch a playoff berth, all the Colts have to do is beat the worst team in the league. I’ve gotta admit, it’s impressive to see Indy returning to the playoffs after just a one-year absence. Especially after all that upheaval during the offseason. Rumor has it Chuck Pagano may be ready to return, too. He should wait until the playoffs, though. Because even if they somehow lose to Kansas City, the Colts are in if the Bengals beat the Steelers.
Bills (5-9) at Dolphins (6-8): Miami-Miami’s still mathematically alive for a playoff berth. I’m not exactly sure how. Anyway, the Dolphins lose those remote chances if they fall to the Bills at home. I don’t see that happening. It’s conceivable that the Dolphins will technically have something to play for next week.
Chargers (5-9) at Jets (6-8): San Diego-I’d like to congratulate the Chargers and Jets for being the only teams flexed out of Sunday night all season. Wise decision. This game’s not at all relevant. Kind of like Tim Tebow. When they moved this game to 1:00, Jets fans got all giddy because the West Coast teams traditionally don’t do well in early games on the East Coast. Yeah, well, the Jets played an early game against the 49ers in Week 4, and San Francisco won 34-0. And have I mentioned that they’re a dysfunctional mess? In a matchup of two coaches who likely won’t be back next season, Norv Turner gets the better of Rex Ryan.
Redskins (8-6) at Eagles (4-10): Philadelphia-The Redskins control their own playoff destiny. If Washington wins out, they win the NFC East. If the Redskins and Cowboys both win, next week’s likely Sunday-night clash will be for the division title. But first they’ve gotta get by Philadelphia in Andy Reid’s final home game as Eagles coach. Last season, the Eagles took great pleasure in ruining the Cowboys’ season by beating them on Christmas Eve. Will they do the same thing to the Redskins this year? I’m not going to bet against them. Washington’s winning streak comes to an end.
Bengals (8-6) at Steelers (7-7): Pittsburgh-This is perhaps the most intriguing game of the week. Cincinnati can clinch playoff berths for both themselves and the Colts with a win, while the Steelers can seize control of their own playoff fate if they win. Pittsburgh was in that same position two weeks ago, but losses to San Diego and Dallas have put the Steelers in a must-win situation against the Bengals. Cincinnati can really show something if they win this one, but Pittsburgh has the Bengals’ number. The Steelers know what they have to do to get into the playoffs. It starts with beating the Bengals at home.
Rams (6-7-1) at Buccaneers (6-8): Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay was still hanging around until this current four-game losing streak, capped by last week’s 41-0 embarrassment in New Orleans, eliminated all hope. The Rams are a team on the rise that’ll be dangerous next season. This is a toss-up, but I’ll go with the Bucs since they’re the home team.
Raiders (4-10) at Panthers (5-9): Carolina-Oakland’s losing streak on the East Coast, and not just in 1:00 games, is too long to count. I don’t see that changing this week. Carolina’s the better team. They beat Atlanta, then traveled cross-country and put a hurting on the Chargers in San Diego.
Patriots (10-4) at Jaguars (2-12): New England-After those back-to-back tough primetime games, the Patriots are effectively given a week off with a Week 16 trip to Jacksonville. That really is a Christmas present to New England from the NFL, especially since that loss to the 49ers means the Patriots are currently staring at the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. They still have a chance at No. 2, so I see them going all-out, at least this week. The Patriots have so many injuries that no one’s sure who’s actually going to play. It doesn’t matter. Jacksonville’s in for a hurting.
Vikings (8-6) at Texans (12-2): Houston-Houston clinches home field in the AFC with a win over the Vikings, who currently own the NFC’s final playoff spot by virtue of that wacky four-way tiebreaker. With the Texans and Packers as their final two opponents, the Vikings will certainly earn that wild card if they win out. I predict that Houston lets Adrian Peterson run all over the field, but completely shuts down the rest of the Minnesota offense. One day after the Falcons clinch home field in the NFC, the Texans wrap up the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Browns (5-9) at Broncos (11-3): Denver-It’s safe to say that Denver’s on a roll. Sure, the Broncos went into last week’s game on an eight-game winning streak that was more the result of playing a bunch of really bad teams in a row than anything else. But they sure proved something by going to Baltimore and dominating the Ravens. Then they got a gift when the Patriots lost to the 49ers. Now Denver just needs to beat Cleveland and Kansas City at home to wrap up the No. 2 seed. Part I of that scenario shouldn’t be a problem. The Peyton Manning-trademarked 12-win season gets transferred from Indy to Denver.
Bears (8-6) at Cardinals (5-9): Chicago-What has happened to my Chicago Bears? They were 7-1! Then they lost to Houston and it’s been downhill ever since. Chicago’s 1-5 in its last six games, and the Bears need two wins and help just to get the second wild card (and a potential trip to Green Bay). Speaking of winning, the Cardinals actually did that last week for the first time in two and a half months. I’m not sure what Bears team is going to show up. If they can do what they did early in the season and force a bad Cardinals offense to commit turnovers, they should be able to put themselves in a position where next week matters.
Giants (8-6) at Ravens (9-5): Giants-Here’s where the five-way 8-6 NFC tie confuses me the most: the Giants are currently ninth, but will somehow leapfrog both Minnesota and Chicago and guarantee themselves at least a wild card if they win-out. They can theoretically still win the NFC East, too, although that’s impossible if both the Redskins and Cowboys win. Or the Giants could be eliminated entirely with a loss and a couple other things. The Ravens lost to Denver last week, but backed into the playoffs when the Steelers lost. Baltimore’s still in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, though. How do the Giants rebound after last week’s showing in Atlanta? I don’t think it’ll be a problem. They always seem to play their best with their backs against the wall, and that’s certainly the case here. I just have a feeling the Giants are going to do it again. They win, and Baltimore’s trip to Cincinnati next week suddenly takes on a lot more meaning.
49ers (10-3-1) at Seahawks (“9-5”): San Francisco-Somebody clinches something on Sunday night. Either the 49ers wrap up the NFC West or the Seahawks secure at least a wild card and put themselves in a position to potentially win the division. The 49ers’ win in New England last week (which was correctly predicted here) showed me a lot. It wasn’t that San Francisco won. It’s how they won. They got out to that big lead, didn’t flinch when the Patriots came all the way back, and, in fact, countered with their own game-winning drive immediately after New England tied the game. The 49ers have the look of a Super Bowl team. As for Seattle, I take back what I said about Pete Carroll not trying to run up the score against Arizona. You don’t attempt a fake punt when you’re up 30 in the fourth quarter! Their offense has obviously been clicking, but they’re playing San Francisco this week, not Arizona or Buffalo. The Seahawks aren’t going to score 50 points this week. That hostile crowd at Qwest Field will be amped up by the Sunday night atmosphere, but the 49ers have already won in Green Bay, on a Monday night in Chicago, and last Sunday night in New England. They won’t be phased, and they clinch the division with a close win.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 151-73-1
