NFL Conference Championship Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks
I’m not sure the Conference Championship Games will be able to match the Divisional Playoffs in terms of excitement. Talk about those games last week! WOW!! Broncos-Ravens was an instant classic, then there was Colin Kaepernick proving why Jim Harbaugh made the right decision. And that was just Saturday! Then on Sunday we got those two ridiculous comebacks in Atlanta. The only “dud” was New England-Houston, and even that game was pretty good. How’s this week even going to come close? I just hope we have two good games, as the four best teams in football fight for the right to go to the Super Bowl.
I also think it’s amazing how three of the four teams in the Conference Championship Games are the same as last year, and the one that’s missing is the one that won the Super Bowl! Bottom line, though, is since they’ve been here before, the stage isn’t going to be overwhelming. The Patriots are always in the AFC title game, and Joe Flacco’s starting to become as much of a regular on this day as Brady. Will this be the time Baltimore finally wins after two AFC Championship losses? San Francisco, meanwhile, was an overtime field goal away from the Super Bowl last year. And let’s not forget about Atlanta. Did last week do enough to show that Matt Ryan and the Falcons very much belong as the fourth member of this quartet. I can see all four of these teams hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in three weeks.
As for the two games…
NFC
49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3): San Francisco-If there were any questions about the 49ers offense, they were answered resoundingly last week. Everybody was saying the Packers wouldn’t just win last week, but would also win the Super Bowl. Well, the 49ers had other ideas, putting up 45 points on the Green Bay defense in a shootout. We’ve known about San Francisco’s Super Bowl-caliber defense for the last couple years. Now the offense is equally Super Bowl-caliber. Colin Kaepernick brings an added dimension that Alex Smith simply doesn’t offer. And playing in a dome is only going to help that dangerous passing game. They don’t have to worry about footing or weather or anything else. If the defense does its job, it’ll be up to Kaepernick to win the game. I think he’s up for the challenge.
However, Matt Ryan is certainly up to the challenge, too. The Broncos have Peyton Manning, yet took a knee and were content to go to overtime. The Falcons took a chance, and were rewarded by Matty Ice leading them down the field for the game-winning field goal after Seattle took the lead. (Denver was tied, but only needed a field goal, so, while the situations weren’t identical, the criticism remains.) That should’ve shut up all of the Falcons’ doubters once and for all, but San Francisco is still favored. Atlanta’s been able to play that underdog card to its advantage all season, though, and the Falcons are hosting the NFC Championship Game for the first time, so you know their fans will be in it. They have to keep the fans involved, though. And they won’t be able to get away with what happened last week again, because the 49ers are much better than the Seahawks.
I’m not surprised this is the NFC Championship matchup. The Falcons and 49ers have been clearly the two best teams in the conference all season. Both offenses are explosive, so it might come down to which defense has a better game. That’s why I give the slight edge to San Francisco. The big-play capability of the 49ers defense, and its ability to shut Atlanta’s offense down, will be the biggest factor. Atlanta has a better offense and San Francisco has a better defense, but the San Francisco offense is better than the Atlanta defense. And for some reason, I think Colin Kaepernick will be given the opportunity to win this game late in the fourth quarter, and he’ll grab it by the horns and lead San Francisco to the Super Bowl.
AFC
Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4): New England-The rematch. The good news for Baltimore is that Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff, the two guys who cost them the game last year, aren’t on the team anymore. The bad news is that the Patriots are undefeated in AFC Championship Games played in Foxboro. Although, I’m not sure how much of a factor that’ll actually be. The Ravens have beaten the Patriots on the road in the playoffs before, and they were in this exact same position last year, when they probably should’ve knocked them off again. Besides, nobody gave the Ravens a chance last week in Denver, yet they went toe-to-toe with the Broncos before winning (almost miraculously) in double overtime. Then there’s the motivation of the Ray Lewis retirement. They want his last game to be the Super Bowl. Don’t count out that factor.
I also think there are a couple other reasons why the Ravens have a legitimate chance here. First of all, they’ve got Joe Flacco. Flacco doesn’t get the same respect/attention as some other quarterbacks, but this is his third AFC Championship Game, and he’s proven he can win on the road in January, since the Ravens (it seems) never have any home games in the playoffs. Then there’s Ray Rice. The explosive running back leaves the defense vulnerable to the big play (just ask the Broncos about that), and Flacco’s got a tremendous big play receiver in Torry Smith. And even though it was down this year, the Ravens defense is still one of the best in the league, and they’ve gotten some of their key guys back from injury. Finally, the Ravens have already beaten the Patriots this year, in Baltimore in Week 3.
Although, it’s almost impossible to pick against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs, especially in the AFC Championship Game. I just have a feeling the Patriots will find a way to pull it out and get back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year. They won’t have Rob Gronkowski, but you know Brady and Belichick will come up with something to confuse the Ravens defense. The Ravens know that, too, which is why the New England defense will be key. Vince Wilfork takes up basically the entire offensive line by himself, so you have to figure they’ve got a decent shot at containing Ray Rice. That means it might be up to Flacco to beat them, and, if anything, the Patriots have shown a bend-but-don’t-break approach on defense. Baltimore can’t settle for field goals. If they do, New England wins.
While I don’t think it’ll be the New England blowout some are expecting, I do still think Tom Brady and Co. will find a way to pull it out. Whatever the matchup is, though, there will be some intriguing Super Bowl storylines. Will it be the 49ers-Ravens “Haurghbowl?” If it’s Falcons vs. Ravens, the final game in the careers of both Tony Gonzalez and Ray Lewis will be the Super Bowl. Or 49ers-Patriots, like I’m prediciting, would be Brady vs. Kaepernick, and that’d just be fun to watch. No matter what, I think we’ve got two great Conference Championship Games in store for us first. These are the four best teams in football. Come Sunday, two of them will prove it.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3
Season: 175-88-1
