NCAA Title Contenders

A lot of stuff happened in the sports world today.  So much to blog about.  But I’m in a college basketball frame of mind, and we’re in the midst of Rivalry Week, so I’m going with that.  More specifically, we’re only about a month away from the start of the NCAA Tournament.  I think that this year’s Tournament is shaping up to be a very good one.  That’s because it’s going to be so wide open it’s ridiculous.  There isn’t one dominant team.  Rather, there are about 10 teams that I can see winning the title…and I can also see those same 10 losing to an 11-seed in the second round.

Let’s start with the two Big Ten teams, who seem to be the most complete squads out there.  I’d give both Indiana and Michigan 1-seeds if I were to make a bracket today, and I think Indiana is the best team in the nation.  But we’ve seen the Hoosiers lose immediately after becoming No. 1 twice.  Michigan is incredibly talented.  I think the likelihood of them getting upset in the Tournament is less than some of the other top teams.  In fact, if I had to make a National Championship pick right now, it’d probably be the Wolverines.  I’m not sure I see any non-Big Ten teams beating them.  But with that being said, it’s looking like there will be at least seven Big Ten teams in the Tournament, all of whom are looking at pretty high seeds.  Regardless, Indiana and Michigan are the two best teams in the best conference.  If one of them wins the Big Ten Tournament, they’ll be the No. 1 overall seed.

Another dangerous Big Ten team is Michigan State.  Michigan State is in the Final Four every year.  It doesn’t matter the seed.  It doesn’t matter the region.  Despite being the third-best team in the Big Ten, it certainly looks like that might be the case again this season.  The Spartans are a Top 10 team, and rightfully so.  They’ve got all the weapons necessary to make their deep Tournament run.  Most importantly, they know how to play in March.

The other conference looking at two potential 1-seeds right now is the ACC.  I like Duke.  Maybe a little more than I should.  Whenever everybody counts them out seems to be the time Duke makes a run.  And keep in mind, they lost to Lehigh in the first round last season.  You know Coach K won’t let that happen again.  But that doesn’t mean they don’t lose to a 10-seed in the second round.  As likely as that might seem, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Elite Eight run by Duke.  And I know I’m in the minority on this one, but I don’t see Miami going that far.  What they’ve done in a very good conference so far can’t be ignored.  Miami’s looking at no lower than a 2-seed right now.  But I have them pegged as the top team most likely to get upset early.  They remind me too much of last year’s Florida State team.

Then there’s Florida, who everybody seems to forget about.  The Gators went to the Elite Eight last season and are even better this year.  I don’t know if it’s because the SEC’s down this year or what, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it’s Florida, not Kentucky, representing the conference in the Final Four.  Speaking of Kentucky, I don’t see it happening.  They’re still good enough to reach the Sweet 16, but they don’t have the killer instinct of last year’s team.  Especially now that Nerleans Noel is out.

I seem to be the only person that’s high on Arizona.  There aren’t that many good teams out West, and Arizona’s probably the best one.  As a result, I see them getting a pretty high seed and, likely, a favorable route to the Final Four.  They’re like Michigan.  They keep losing to conference games, but there aren’t many teams outside their conference who can give them trouble.  I know a lot of people would probably be surprised if Arizona makes a deep run in the Tournament.  I wouldn’t be one of them.

What’s up with Kansas?  I still think that’s one of the four or five best teams in the nation.  But they just can’t figure things out (or get out of their own way).  As a result, the Jayhawks’ seed is plummeting into the 4-5 range, and a first round upset doesn’t seem that far-fetched.  But if Kansas gets things straightened out and starts playing the way its capable, look out.  And remember, they made it all the way to the Championship Game last year.  They might not be the best team in the State of Kansas, though.  Kansas State’s not going to win the title.  But that doesn’t mean the Wildcats aren’t capable of making noise in the Tournament.  Quite the opposite, actually.  I think Kansas State is going to be that team nobody wants to see in their bracket.

I didn’t forget about the Big East.  Or Louisville.  This team was the preseason No. 2, and is one of the most talented squads in the nation.  The Cardinals have taken some lumps this season, but I think they’re the one team that seems most capable of simply getting hot and staying that way.  I can see them doing something similar to UConn in 2011.  However, an off night makes Louisville vulnerable.  Syracuse is barely worth talking about.  They’re good, but they’re not going to make any noise in the Tournament.  Second round, maybe Sweet 16.  They don’t fit the mold of a potential early upset victim, but I don’t think there’s anyone in the country who views Syracuse as a legitimate Final Four contender either.

As for your traditional March mid-major darlings Gonzaga and Butler, it’s going to be the same old script.  The Zags will be hurt by their strength of schedule, get seeded lower than most people think they should be, and lose in either the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.  Butler’s chances of going far seem slightly better, and not just because of the back-to-back Championship Game appearances.  It’s because they’re now in the Atlantic 10, which means they’re playing a much better schedule.  While I don’t think Butler is as good, or even as capable of making that run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win a couple of Tournament games.

And this doesn’t even count all those mid-level teams in the major conferences or the other really good mid-major teams.  Truth is, everything’s so wide open this year that it wouldn’t surprise me if somebody like a Creighton or a Georgetown gets hot and rides it all the way to the Promised Land.  (Remember, we did see Kemba Walker basically single-handedly win both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments two years ago.)  That’s one of the best, and worst, things about watching college basketball this season.  There are so many good teams, anyone can win.

Last year, Kentucky was clearly the best team and proved it.  This year?  Who knows!  Your argument for why Louisville is going to win the title makes just as much sense as mine about Michigan or his about Duke.  The NCAA Tournament is always fun.  When you have a year like this, where there’s no dominant team, that’s especially true.