Men’s Tournament Analysis NCAA

Men’s Tournament Analysis by Joe Brackets:

Looking at the NCAA Tournament bracket, I can’t say I’m too surprised about that much of it. The four No. 1 seeds were correct, as were the four No. 2 seeds. Some of the lower seeds didn’t make much sense (Oregon a 12?), but, for the most part, I think the field was seeded fairly. The teams that did and didn’t get in weren’t really much of a surprise, either. I had Virginia and Kentucky in over Middle Tennessee and Boise State, but otherwise, I was right-on with all of the at-large teams. And I’m not going to disagree with the committee’s decision to reward good teams from mid-majors.

As for who’s going to win the Tournament, that’s anybody’s guess. This year has been so unpredictable that there’s probably a dozen teams that have a realistic shot at winnign the National Championship, and even more that could be considered Final Four contenders. If I had to make a pick right now, I’d have to say that I’m more inclined to go with the teams that are the hottest right now. That means the conference champions in the BCS leagues. Or, in other words, the likes of Louisville, Kansas and Miami. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a New Mexico or a Wisconsin make its way to Atlanta either.
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So, how do I see the Tournament shaping up? Let’s take a look…

MIDWEST: Louisville’s the No. 1 overall seed and certainly looks to have a relatively easy road back to the Final Four, as they should. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. There’s that potential Sweet Sixteen matchup between Duke and Michigan State, and Tom Izzo always finds some way to get Michigan State to the Final Four no matter what their seed is. Saint Louis is a potential sleeper team in this region. They’re a lot better than people think. Same thing with Oregon. The Ducks are incredibly under-seeded at 12, and I think they’ll beat Oklahoma State for your yearly 5-12 upset. Creighton’s dangerous, too. Duke needs to bring its game in the second round. I think the Blue Devils survive, but it’ll be a close one. As for my picks in this region, I’m going with Louisville vs. Saint Louis and Michigan State vs. Duke. And in the regional final, a rematch of one from last year, I’m going with the opposite result. Michigan State over Louisville.

WEST: Even though they’re the lowest ranked of the 1-seeds, Gonzaga might have the easiest road to the Final Four. Ohio State is the fourth 2-seed, yet they got shipped out west as the potential regional final opponent for the Zags. Some crazy things might happen in the West region, though. Wisconsin could easily beat Gonzaga, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose to Ole Miss, either. The winner of that game beats Kansas State. The Arizona-New Mexico winner could run the table and go to Atlanta. That’s a tremendous second-round matchup, and Ohio State needs to be ready for either one. That is, if the Buckeyes even get past the Notre Dame-Iowa State winner. As much as I like Notre Dame, I’m picking Iowa State in that game solely because I hope I never see those disgusting uniforms Notre Dame wore in the Big East Tournament again. The picks are Gonzaga, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Ohio State. Gonzaga and New Mexico in the regional final, with the Zags going to the Final Four.

SOUTH: Ladies and gentlemen, be weary. The Kansas Jayhawks have been awakened. Another Big 12 title. Another No. 1 seed. Is another deep run in the NCAA Tournament far behind? Don’t forget, this team made it to the Championship Game last year, and has a lot of the same pieces back. Oh, and let’s not forget the Roy Williams Bowl against North Carolina in the second round. We might see some upsets in the South region. Michigan looked like a potential Final Four team a few weeks ago. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose to South Dakota State. Same thing with VCU and Akron. Minnesota would’ve been a tough draw for UCLA anyway. Without Jordan Adams, I see the Bruins having a really hard time with the Gophers. A lot of people are high in Georgetown (and I’m one of them), but Florida has been to back-to-back Elite Eights. Even though the SEC was down this year, they’re a very dangerous team come this time of year. I’m going to take Kansas against Akron in one Sweet Sixteen matchup and Florida vs. Georgetown in the other. And this year Florida finally gets over that hump and back to the Final Four by beating Kansas.

EAST: If not for that early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana would’ve been the No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament. That was made pretty clear when the committee chairman said there wasn’t even a discussion about moving Indiana off the 1-line. The only thing that not being No. 1 overall cost them was a regional in Indianapolis. But they still get to go to Washington, which isn’t that bad of a trip. They drew the best No. 2 seed in Miami, but I’m still not sold on the Hurricanes, even after they won the ACC regular season and tournament titles. I don’t know how I feel about Syracuse, and Cal is a dangerous matchup for UNLV, especially in San Jose, which is about seven feet from the Cal campus. Butler-Bucknell’s an interesting matchup, too. I’m going with Syracuse to meet Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen, only because they would beat Cal if Cal beats UNLV, which is a distinct possibility. As much as I’ve liked Marquette all season, I don’t like that matchup against Butler-Bucknell. As a result, I’m going with Butler-Miami in the other regional semi. This is my only 1 vs. 2 regional final, with Indiana beating Miami.

Final Four: So, that gives us Michigan State vs. Gonzaga and Florida vs. Indiana in the Final Four. I think Michigan State would actually be a pretty favorable matchup for the Zags. Gonzaga has one of the best, if not THE BEST, frontcourts in the country. They first became the nation’s darlings 14 years ago when they came out of nowhere and made the Elite Eight. How much greater will the love affair become when they reach the National Championship Game this season?

As for their opponent, I’ve gotta go with the Hoosiers. I’ve thought all year that Indiana was the best team in the nation. The same was true with Kentucky last year. If the Hoosiers hit their stride, nobody’s going to beat them. Not Florida, and not Gonzaga. We celebrate the 75th anniversary of March Madness with one of the most decorated teams in college basketball history winning its first National Championship in 26 years.

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