Who to Watch In College Hoops

Who to Watch In College Hoops

by Joe Brackets, featured blogger on AskHoffa.com

College basketball season started this weekend.  Most of the top teams have already played their first games, which probably makes this post seem late for some of you, but I don’t think that’s the case at all.  With a few exceptions, the first game for most top teams is essentially a glorified exhibition game.  The season doesn’t really get going until the Thanksgiving tournaments, and conference play in most leagues doesn’t begin until January.

This is also a very interesting season in college basketball.  The face of the sport as we knew it will be forever changed next year, as the football-driven constant conference realignment continues to rear its ugly head.  In fact, it’s already started.  Missouri, one of the best teams in the Big 12, is now a member of the SEC.  And don’t even get me started on the whole Big East-to-ACC exodus.  This season’s Big East Tournament will undoubtedly mark the end of an era.  Thinking of a Big East without Syracuse is like trying to think of a Big Ten without Michigan or a Pac-12 without UCLA.

But we at least have one final season of college basketball as we knew it.  And, as usual, I don’t see the big boys playing nicely with the teams from the smaller conferences.  (It’s only going to get worse as the major conferences add more and more schools.)  Most, if not all of the at-large NCAA Tournament bids will come from one of these nine leagues, with a couple being reserved for the likes of the CAA, Missouri Valley and West Coast Conference:

ACC: Again, don’t get me started on the whole Syracuse-Pitt-Notre Dame thing.  It’s going to be just as weird to see a “conference” game between North Carolina and Pitt.  But that’s next year.  As for this year, as crazy as it sounds, I think the best team in the ACC plays on Tobacco Road, but doesn’t wear a shade of blue.  NC State’s run in the NCAA Tournament last year was just a sign of things to come.  The Wolfpack are legit.  Duke and North Carolina are still in the discussion, too, obviously, but right now I view them both as fringe Top 10 teams.  If Duke still had Austin Rivers and Kyrie Irving it would be a different story, but I think they’ll be looking up at NC State.  Florida State’s still good despite losing most of its core guys from last year, and I really think Miami can make some noise after last year’s run in the NIT.  Maryland’s better, too.  If the ACC gets six tournament teams, which I think it will, the Terps will be one of them.

Atlantic 10: This is a strange transitional year in the A-10.  Temple’s on the way out, claiming its well-deserved place in the Big East next season.  Charlotte’s also on its way out to rejoin Conference USA.  Butler and VCU, the mid-major Final Four darlings of the last couple years, are in, shedding their mid-major label.  As a result, we’ve got a crazy mix-and-match collection of 16 teams in the A-10.  Temple’s always been the class of this conference, and I don’t really expect that to change.  They’ll claim one last Tournament bid before everyone else says “Bye.”  I doubt there are many Atlantic 10 men’s basketball teams that will be sad to see Temple go.  Newcomer VCU also has a shot to contend for the conference title, and Saint Louis has a very good team with a very good coach in Rick Majerus.  Keep your eye on the Billikens.  They’ll be in the Top 25 before long.  Xavier’s always a contender, too, and Butler’s chances at getting an NCAA at-large bid are obviously much better in the better conference.

Big East: West Virginia’s gone and UConn’s ineligible, which means the Big East is down to 14 teams headed to the Garden in March.  And the best of that lot is pretty clear.  It’s Louisville, a program quickly becoming one of the cornerstone teams of the Big East.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals in the Final Four for the second straight year.  Syracuse should also hover around the Top 10 for most of the year.  Notre Dame has all five starters back and would probably like to play on Saturday night in New York (the Big East Championship Game) one time before peacing out in 2014.  Georgetown and Cincinnati should easily get back to the Tournament, too, and Marquette probably will as well.  The seventh NCAA Tournament team from the Big East is a toss-up.  Pitt should rebound after a down year in 2011-12.  So should Villanova.  And Seton Hall somehow didn’t get into the Tournament last year, so you know they’d like to take care of business and not have to worry about the bubble this season.

Big Ten: Indiana’s back!  The Hoosiers are the preseason No. 1 and loaded for a deep Tournament run behind Cody Zeller.  This should be a good year for the Big Ten in men’s basketball.  Ohio State’s coming off a Final Four appearance, Michigan State’s still Michigan State, and a lot of experts think Michigan’s a potential Final Four team.  Throw in the always-tough Wisconsin and a Minnesota team that made the finals of the NIT last season, and you’ve got six teams that could potentially all get a 5-seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament.  Purdue’s always in the discussion, too, and Northwestern is finally going to get that first NCAA bid sooner or later.  The Wildcats are good enough to have that be this year.  It’ll be a long year for Illinois, Iowa, Penn State and Nebraska.

Big 12: The only team that was actually going to challenge Kansas for the Big 12 title plays in the SEC now.  And Missouri’s departure is going to make this a down year in the Big 12.  Kansas State, Baylor and probably Texas will join the Jayhawks in the Tournament, and West Virgina’s going to be a tough matchup every night.  But they’re no Missouri.  And TCU’s no Texas A&M.  If the Big 12 does get a fifth Tournament team, it’ll probably be either Oklahoma State or Iowa State.  But I only see them getting four.

Conference USA: I know it’s a borderline “major” conference, but they always seem to get at least one at-large bid, and half of this league’s teams are joining the Big East next year, so I always count it.  The class of Conference USA, as has been the case for the last several years, is Memphis.  I guarantee everybody that’s not going to the Big East with them won’t miss Memphis in Conference USA.  The talent-gap between them and the rest of the league is pretty wide.  There might be only one Conference USA at-large bid up for grabs, which will probably come down to Tulsa and UTEP.  I’m curious to see what kind of a team Larry Brown is going to have at SMU, though.  Will they actually be able to contend when they get to the Big East?

Mountain West: Another conference in transition, they’ve already lost BYU and Utah, and San Diego State’s leaving after this year.  The Aztecs will be right up there fighting for one last Mountain West championship, though.  I think it’ll probably come down to San Diego State and UNLV for the conference title.  UNLV will likely be ranked all year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a deep NCAA Tournament run.  New Mexico’s also very good and will give the Mountain West at least three NCAA teams.  I can see there being as many as five, though.  I’d be surprised if Colorado State didn’t get in, and Nevada will certainly benefit from playing a much tougher schedule than they did in the WAC.

Pac-12: The down years in the Pac-12 may be behind them.  UCLA’s back in top form after not even getting into the NIT last year.  The Bruins might be in trouble with the NCAA, though, which puts even more urgency on this season.  Arizona didn’t get into the Tournament either last year, but I expect that to change.  They’re too good.  Stanford should be buoyed by its NIT title, and Washington won the regular season last year.  Oregon has to be getting sick of its annual trip to the NIT.  Same thing with Oregon State, which plays in the CBI every year through some sort of presidential decree.  And let’s not forget about Colorado, last year’s surprise Pac-12 tourney champs in their inaugural year in the league.  I don’t see them repeating that, but something weird always seems to happen in the Pac-12 Tournament.

SEC: As if the SEC wasn’t tough enough, Missouri and Texas A&M join this year to make the league even better.  How many NCAA bids will the SEC get?  It could be a lot.  Kentucky’s definitely going to get one.  John Calipari’s one-and-done formula seems to work.  He won a national title with a bunch of freshmen last year, all of those guys are now in the NBA, and all he did was reload with another preseason Top 5 team.  Unlike last year, Kentucky’s actually in for a battle in the SEC this season.  Florida was one win away from the Final Four last season, and the Gators have all the tools to challenge Kentucky for the top spot.  I’d expect Missouri to make plenty of noise during its maiden voyage in the SEC, too.  Will they get beaten up in the tougher league though?  Vanderbilt’s got a nice little mini-dynasty going, and I’d be very surprised if Cuonzo Martin doesn’t get Tennessee back to the NCAA Tournament.  Of the teams in the SEC West, Alabama is clearly the best.  They’ll have their annual bubble watch, but I do see them getting in.  Then there are the two maroon and white schools–Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  I’m not sure if Mississippi State is deep enough.  It might come down to their non-conference record.  And with Texas A&M, we’ll find out how good they actually are.  Because middle of the pack in the Big 12 and middle of the pack in the SEC are nowhere close to the same thing.

In the mid-majors, expect the West Coast Conference’s Big Three (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU) to all get in.  The CAA was weakend by the loss of VCU.  They might only get one bid, which might come down to Drexel and George Mason.  Doug McDermott’s an All-American candidate, and his Creighton team is the best in the MVC by a mile.  Even if they don’t win the conference tournament, I think they get in the Tournament no matter what.  Illinois State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa could be in the mix for at-large bids out of the Missouri Valley.

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