Baseball 2013, Part III

Baseball 2013, Part III by Joe Brackets:

Without question, the division that’s going to see the greatest amount of change this season is the AL West. After 20 years as a four-team division, the AL West now has five teams just like everybody else, thanks to the Astros moving over from the NL Central. And those five teams include two haves (Angels, Rangers), two have-nots (Mariners, Astros), and an Oakland team that surprised everyone by winning the division last season. Can the A’s repeat, especially with those two behemoths looking to rebound after disappointing 2012 campaigns?

I think the AL West is going to be very competitive this season. The Angels are the most talented team in the division, but that was true last year too and they finished third. The Rangers have lost a lot, so they’re not as good as they’ve been, and who knows if the A’s were a one-year wonder or that was the beginning of something? All three will also benefit from the 38 games they’ll play against the Mariners and Astros, although vastly-improved Seattle is much more than just Felix Hernandez now.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: The Angels already boasted one of the deepest rosters in baseball when they added Josh Hamilton. If you’re keeping score, that’s two consecutive winters in which the Angels got the best free agent available. And let’s not forget the other guy who arrived on the scene last season, the sabermetrician’s dream himself Mike Trout. For all those people who jumped on Trout for not playing in the World Baseball Classic, I understand why he didn’t. Trout didn’t join the Angels until May last year. This is his first Major League Spring Training, and he’s going into his first full season. If he was that good as a rookie, the sky’s the limit for Trout. His arrival, as well as Mark Trumbo’s emergence, also allowed the Angels to shed some dead contracts in Kendrys Morales, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Vernon Wells. Although, they still think Peter Bourjos is a Major League center fielder for some reason that is beyond my realm on understanding. Trout’s their best player and center field is his best position. Why do they insist on messing with that so that they can start a Quadruple-A player? (I would’ve kept Morales and taken the hit defensively by putting Trumbo in left.) As good as the heart of the Angels’ lineup is, they don’t have the greatest depth, which is another reason why I wouldn’t have gotten rid of all the bench guys who made money. Regardless, I think their top talent makes them the best team in the AL West. That and the starting rotation, which is the best in the division. Jered Weaver is on the short-list of top pitchers in the American League (I’ve got him third behind Verlander and David Price), and C.J. Wilson’s as good a No. 2 as you’re gonna find. I’d like the rotation better if it still included Ervin Santana, but it’s still very good. Whether or not they win the division might come down to how well the bullpen performs. More importantly, if Ernesto Frieri can be as good as he was last season.
Projected Record: 97-65
Projected Lineup: Mike Trout-LF, Erick Aybar-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Josh Hamilton-RF, Mark Trumbo-DH, Howie Kendrick-2B, Chris Iannetta-C, Peter Bourjos-CF, Alberto Callaspo-3B
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas
Closer: Ernesto Frieri

2. Texas Rangers: The Rangers are certainly a different team than the one that went to back-to-back World Series. Michael Young, the Face of the Franchise for more than a decade, is gone now, which was in the best interest of all parties. Also gone is Josh Hamilton, the leader of this renaissance. They expect top prospect Jurickson Profar to be with the big club by midseason, but they have nowhere to put him (unless they turn him into an outfielder). Regardless, the Texas lineup is still loaded, and, while not as good as Hamilton and Young, Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski are adequate replacements. As for Hamilton’s replacement in center field, Cuban rookie Leonys Martin will get the nod on Opening Day, but they also have Craig Gentry, who’s serviceable if nothing else. Texas is going to score a lot of runs yet again. I’m somewhat worried about what will happen when they try to work Profar into the mix, though. They could run the risk of making Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus, two of their best players, very unhappy. The starting rotation has a solid top four anchored by Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, and closer Joe Nathan looked like the Joe Nathan of old last season. The rest of the bullpen leading up to Nathan is pretty soft, though. Alexi Ogando was perfect in that setup role, but they’re committed to him as a starter, and, frankly, the rotation’s not as strong without him. As a result, the Rangers could be vulnerable in the middle innings. And that’s where I think the Angels have a slight edge. These two rivals will be very close all season, but, especially after last season’s collapse, I don’t have as much faith in Texas as I used to.
Projected Record: 93-69
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Kinsler-2B, Adrian Beltre-3B, Nelson Cruz-RF, Lance Berkman-DH, A.J. Pierzynski-C, David Murphy-LF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Nick Tepesch
Closer: Joe Nathan

3. Oakland Athletics: I give the A’s credit. After coming out of nowhere to win the division last season, they didn’t just sit tight with the same team. They actually went out and got better, acquiring Chris Young from the Diamondbacks and Scott Sizemore from the Cardinals. They’ve also now got Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, although the contributions of Stephen Drew last season can’t be overlooked. He was traded to Boston for Jed Lowrie, who’s projected as the backup at both short and third. I’m also eager to see what Yoenis Cespedes can do for an encore after being everything he was hyped to be and more last year. He likely won’t have to play the outfield this year, which could help his production. Oakland is, was and always will be about pitching, though. The thing they conveniently left out in “Moneyball” is that those A’s teams of the early 2000s had Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. That’s why they won all those games back then. And the new Hudson-Mulder-Zito of Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker is why they won so many games last season. It’s certainly a risk to rely so much on second-year starting pitchers. Especially on a team that’s not going to score that many runs. However, they are blessed with one of the best bullpens in baseball. Closer Grant Balfour is outstanding, and Ryan Cook and Jerry Blevins might be the best righty-lefty setup combo out there. Especially after last year, the A’s are entirely capable of challenging the Angels and Rangers again. They might even finish on top. I don’t see how they don’t have a drop off, though. They overachieved last season. Anaheim and Texas are more talented by far. It’s not an insult to say Oakland’s the third-best team in the AL West.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF, Hiroyuki Nakajima-SS, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Chris Young-LF, Brendan Moss-1B, John Jaso-C, Scott Sizemore-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B
Projected Rotation: Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily
Closer: Grant Balfour

4. Seattle Mariners: There’s probably no team happier that the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West than the Seattle Mariners. Because even though they’re still really bad, the Mariners are no longer the worst team in this division, and the likelihood of their climbing out of last place seems pretty high (even though they’ll still finish fourth). I also give the Mariners a lot of credit for doing something about their anemic offense. The problem is that they got too many guys who play the same positions, though. Michael Morse and Jason Bay can’t both play left field. Same thing about Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez at DH. And that’s not even accounting for the fact that Jesus Montero has to catch now. He’s not a good catcher. That’s why the Yankees traded him, and that’s why the Mariners stuck him at DH most of the time last year. I do think that the offense will be significantly improved, though. How can it not be? But, just as important as the guys they brought in, they had some good talent already there in Dustin Ackley, Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak. Then there’s Michael Saunders, who was a revelation during the WBC and looks primed for a big year. With the improved offense and the walls at Safeco Field finally being moved in, it’s possible that Felix Hernandez might be allowed to give up more than two runs and still have a chance to win this season. It’s no secret that this is King Felix’s team now, a point that was made even more clear when Ichiro was traded to the Yankees in the middle of last season. Sadly, the rotation behind him isn’t much better than it’s been in past years, although Hisashi Iwakuma looks like the real deal, which would finally give Seattle the No. 2 starter it desperately needs. I like Joe Saunders as the No. 3 starter if for no other reason than he’s a veteran innings-eater. I don’t expect the Mariners to challenge the three top teams in the division. However, they’re significantly better, and .500 is a reasonable goal. Playing the Astros 19 times is certainly going to help in that regard.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Franklin Gutierrez-CF, Dustin Ackley-2B, Michael Saunders-RF, Kendrys Morales-DH, Michael Morse-LF, Justin Smoak-1B, Jesus Montero-C, Kyle Seager-3B, Brendan Ryan-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, Blake Beaven, Brandon Maurer
Closer: Tom Wilhelmsen

5. Houston Astros: After 51 seasons in the National League, the Houston Astros have a completely new identity in 2013. They’ve got new uniforms to go along with their new league. It’s like they’re an expansion team. Although, it’s not a stretch to say they’re going to look like one. They’ve lost 100 games in each of the last two years and there’s not a single guy on the roster who anybody’s ever heard of. Oh yeah, and they had to go get a DH, too. Fortunately, Carlos Pena was available to fill that role (it’s funny that they’ve had a DH on the roster for all that time in Carlos Lee, but now that they’re in the American League and actually need one, he’s gone). This is a bad team that moved into a good division. It’ll be a miracle if they don’t lose 100 again. As for the “talent” on the Houston roster, the best player on the team has to be second baseman Jose Altuve. It’s also possible you’ve heard of Rick Ankiel the pitching flameout-turned-outfielder. He’ll play right. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno was on the Mets last season, and third baseman Matt Dominguez is the guy they got from Miami for Lee. They also got former A’s first baseman Chris Carter, who’ll get regular at-bats as the everyday left fielder. Center fielder Justin Maxwell really looks like the real deal, too. Houston’s rotation is anchored by Bud Norris, who is at least a legitimate Major League starter. So is Texas native Philip Humber, who despite tossing a perfect game in May, was cut loose by the White Sox at the end of last season. Closer Jose Veras is on his fifth team in as many seasons, but he’s at least a veteran presence in that bullpen. And frankly, does it really matter who the closer is? How many save situations is he actually going to have? Veras is clearly the best option in that spot, though, and he experienced more winning in March with the Dominican Republic in the WBC than he will all season in Houston. At least the Astros will win more games than the Texans.
Projected Record: 55-107
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Brett Wallace-1B, Justin Maxwell-CF, Carlos Pena-DH, Chris Carter-LF, Matt Dominguez-3B, Rick Ankiel-RF, Ronny Cedeno-SS, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Phillip Humber, Alex White, Erik Bedard
Closer: Jose Veras