2013 NCAA Womans Tournament Analysis

Women’s Tournament Analysis by Joe Brackets:

As a result of that dominance, I think it’ll be very tough for anybody to break up that quartet’s collision course for New Orleans.  It’s cliche to go with the chalk and take all four No. 1 seeds, as well as all four teams that made the Final Four the year before, but I think I might have to break both of those golden rules this year.  Because I’m not sure who I see beating any of them before the Final Four.  The good news is if they all make it, we’ll have three phenomenal games in store once they hit the Big Easy.

OKLAHOMA CITY: Defending National Champion Baylor would like to make sure Brittany Griner goes out just like Diana Taurasi and Candace Parker before her…an all-time great winning a second straight title to cap her collegiate career.  The road to the Final Four looks fairly easy, as it should for the defending champion and No. 1 overall seed.  The Louisville-Purdue game in the second round could be interesting, and I like Oklahoma to beat UCLA, but this region has a Baylor-Tennessee rematch written all over it.  Last year, of course, Pat Summitt’s final game was a loss to Baylor in the Elite Eight, ending Tennessee’s run of every senior class having been to at least one Final Four during their careers.  Unfortunately, it looks like it’s going to be five straight years for the Lady Vols.  Because, while they’re the only team in this region that can actually play with Baylor, their fate’s going to be the same.  The Sweet Sixteen victims will be Purdue (Baylor) and Oklahoma (Tennessee) before Baylor beats Tennessee in the regional final.

SPOKANE: I absolutely hate the way the women’s tournament is structured sometimes.  Two years ago, Baylor and Texas A&M were the top two seeds in the same region and played for the fourth time that season in the regional final.  This year, the same thing is the case with Stanford and archrival Cal, the No. 1 and 2 seeds out west.  They really need to consider adopting the same rule the men have where the top three teams in a conference automatically have to be placed in different regions.  Because it’s not fair to either one that they’ll have to meet again with a spot in the Final Four on the line.  (I would’ve placed Cal in Oklahoma City.)  Anyway, if any of the 1-seeds is going to lose before the Final Four, it might be Stanford.  Cal is arguably the best 2-seed, and Penn State was probably going to get one as well, but dropped to a 3 after losing in the Big Ten Tournament.  Despite both playing on the road in the second round, I expect to see a great Sweet Sixteen matchup between Penn State and Cal.  The fourth team in the regional semis might be a surprise, though.  Georgia’s the No. 4 seed, but that’s an intriguing 5-12 match-up between Iowa State and Gonzaga.  The Zags are hosting both the first round and the regional (which is technically hosted by Washington State, which is why they’re allowed to play there).  They’ve made the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last two years, and a return trip doesn’t seem that far out of the question.  However, I think they’re going to lose to Iowa State, and the Cyclones will be Stanford’s victim in the Sweet Sixteen.  It’ll be close in the regional final, but I do think Stanford gets through by beating Penn State.

NORFOLK: I would love to see Notre Dame win the national title.  For several reasons.  Not the least of which is that Skylar Diggins deserves it.  Especially after losing in the Championship Game two years in a row.  One of the teams that beat the Irish for the title was Texas A&M, which is the No. 3 seed here and a potential Elite Eight opponent.  Notre Dame should also be weary of a good Duke team lurking with that No. 2 seed.  The Blue Devils were probably the only other team to enter that 1-seed discussion (they were ranked No. 5 pretty much all year), and if anybody is going to break up the quartet, it might be them.  This is the region where I see the chalk playing out the most.  Fifth-seeded Colorado would be hosting fourth-seeded South Carolina in the second round, but I still think South Carolina wins that game.  That means all four top seeds advance to Norfolk: Notre Dame, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Duke.  We get a great Notre Dame-Duke regional final (which will be a conference game in the ACC next season).  While I think it’ll be close, the Fighting Irish are the better team and should get through to another Final Four.

BRIDGEPORT: The NCAA makes it as easy as possible for UConn to advance to the Final Four every year.  I can’t remember the last time they played a regional outside of the Northeast.  This year, they don’t even need to leave the State of Connecticut.  The teams in this region don’t look like they’ll pose much of a challenge for the Huskies either.  The Maryland-Michigan State game could be entertaining (side note that I find personally amusing: Marist and Quinnipiac will be the two best teams in the MAAC next season, and they could end up playing each other should they both pull the first-round upset), but neither one will beat UConn.  I think this might be the year Delaware finally makes it to the second week, which would be an appropriate send-off for Elena Delle Done (the former UConn recruit) after all she’s done for that program.  Kentucky should also easily get through to the regional final, where it will be the same story as last year.  A loss to UConn, as the Huskies get back to another Final Four.

Final Four: Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut
Like I said, its cliche to take all four 1-seeds.  I admit it.  But I’ll be shocked if they don’t all end up in New Orleans.  They’re all that much better than everybody else.  Stanford handed Baylor its only loss over the last two years, which means the Final Four rematch won’t be a pushover like it was last year (when they were both much better teams).  However, I don’t think the result will be any different.  Stanford’s string of Final Four losses will continue.  They’re the fourth-best team in the country.  But that’s just the problem. They’re the fourth-best.

As for the other semifinal, it’s only fitting that the final chapter of the UConn-Notre Dame rivalry would come in the Final Four.  It’s perhaps the best conference rivalry that women’s college basketball has ever seen, but is yet another casualty of the breakup of the Big East.  Anyway, UConn has four losses this year.  One to Baylor and three to Notre Dame, including the Big East final.  Throw in a loss to the Fighting Irish in the 2012 Final Four, and I think it’s pretty clear that Notre Dame has UConn’s number.  I’m not sure that changes in New Orleans.  Next year when they don’t have to play each other as often (and, more importantly, Skylar Diggins is gone), maybe UConn will turn the tide, but I see Notre Dame pulling off the rare feat of knocking off the same opponent four times in one season.

That gives us a National Championship Game rematch between Baylor and Notre Dame.  Baylor was clearly the far superior team last year, and they proved it in the final.  The gap isn’t as great this season, but the Bears are still better.  While it would be great to see Skylar Diggins get the championship she deserves in her final game in a Notre Dame uniform, I think the senior who wins a national title in her final game will be one of the most dominant players of her generation, if not all-time.  Brittany Griner.  Baylor goes back-to-back.